📝 Chapter 5: Discrete Probability Distributions

Assessment OF Learning — Unit Test
✅ Graded — Counts Toward 70% Term Mark
⏱️ Duration: 75 minutes  |  Total: /60 marks
Show all work.
K/U
/15
Thinking
/15
Comm.
/15
Applic.
/15
Part A: Knowledge & Understanding [15 marks]
Question 1 [2 marks]
For \( X \sim \mathrm{Binomial}(15, 0.4) \), find \( E(X) \).
Solution:
\( E(X) = np = 15(0.4) = 6 \).
Question 2 [2 marks]
A coin is tossed 12 times. Find \( P(\text{exactly 8 heads}) \). (decimal to 4 places)
Solution:
\( P = \binom{12}{8}(0.5)^{12} = 495 \cdot \dfrac{1}{4096} \approx 0.1208 \).
Question 3 [2 marks]
A free-throw shooter has 90% accuracy. \( P(\text{first miss is on 5th attempt}) \) = ? (decimal to 4 places)
Solution:
Geometric, "success" = miss, p = 0.1. \( P(X=5) = (0.9)^4(0.1) = 0.6561 \cdot 0.1 = 0.06561 \).
Question 4 [2 marks]
A bag has 12 marbles: 4 red, 8 blue. 3 are drawn without replacement. \( P(\text{exactly 2 red}) \) = ? (decimal to 4 places)
Solution:
\( P = \dfrac{\binom{4}{2}\binom{8}{1}}{\binom{12}{3}} = \dfrac{6 \cdot 8}{220} = \dfrac{48}{220} \approx 0.2182 \).
Question 5 [3 marks]
For a binomial distribution with \( n = 25 \) and \( p = 0.4 \), find \( \sigma \) (standard deviation, decimal to 4 places).
Solution:
\( \mathrm{Var} = np(1-p) = 25(0.4)(0.6) = 6 \). \( \sigma = \sqrt{6} \approx 2.4495 \).
Question 6 [2 marks]
A salesperson succeeds on 25% of calls. The expected number of calls until the first sale is:
Solution:
Geometric mean: \( \mu = \dfrac{1}{p} = \dfrac{1}{0.25} = 4 \).
Question 7 [2 marks]
A 30-question test, 5 options each. A student guesses on every question. Expected number correct:
Solution:
\( E = np = 30 \cdot \dfrac{1}{5} = 6 \).
Part B: Thinking [15 marks]
Question 8 [4 marks]
A factory's quality control: 95% of items pass inspection. From a batch of 200 items, what is the probability that at least 195 pass? Show all work using the binomial distribution.
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Question 9 [4 marks]
A box contains 20 chocolates: 6 with caramel, 14 plain. A sample of 4 is drawn at random. Construct the probability distribution for \( X \) = number of caramel chocolates. Find \( E(X) \) and \( \mathrm{Var}(X) \).
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Question 10 [4 marks]
A baseball player has a batting average of .250. Find the probability his first hit comes on his 5th at-bat. What is the most probable at-bat for the first hit? Justify.
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Question 11 [3 marks]
For each scenario, identify the distribution (binomial, geometric, hypergeometric) and justify:
a) Drawing 3 cards from a 52-card deck and counting Aces.
b) Tossing a coin until the first head.
c) Asking 100 randomly chosen voters a yes/no question.
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Part C: Communication [15 marks]
Question 12 [4 marks]
Explain the difference between binomial and hypergeometric distributions. Use a concrete example (e.g., a deck of cards) to demonstrate when each applies. What is the role of "with vs. without replacement"?
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Question 13 [4 marks]
A student claims: "If a coin is tossed 10 times, the most likely number of heads is exactly 5." Is this correct? Justify with a calculation. What is \( P(X=5) \) for \( X \sim \mathrm{Binomial}(10, 0.5) \)?
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Question 14 [4 marks]
Describe a step-by-step procedure for deciding whether a problem is binomial, geometric, or hypergeometric. Apply your procedure to: "Drawing 5 cards from a deck and counting Hearts."
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Question 15 [3 marks]
Compare the means and variances: binomial \( np, np(1-p) \); geometric \( \dfrac{1}{p} \); hypergeometric \( n\dfrac{r}{N} \). What does the variance tell us about the spread of outcomes? Give an example.
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Part D: Application [15 marks]
Question 16 [4 marks]
A pharmaceutical drug is effective in 70% of patients. In a clinical trial of 25 patients, find the probability that exactly 20 are cured. Find the expected number cured and the standard deviation.
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Question 17 [4 marks]
A quality control inspector takes a sample of 5 items from a batch of 50. The batch contains 3 defective items. a) Find \( P(\text{at least 1 defective in sample}) \). b) The inspector rejects the batch if any defective item is found. \( P(\text{batch is rejected}) \) = ?
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Question 18 [3 marks]
A telemarketer calls until she makes her first sale. Each call has a 0.15 probability of success. a) Find the probability she succeeds on the 6th call. b) What is the expected number of calls until the first sale?
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Question 19 [4 marks]
A company manufactures microchips with a 2% defect rate. Quality assurance tests samples of 100 chips. a) Find the expected number of defective chips per sample. b) Find \( P(\text{at most 1 defective}) \) using the binomial distribution. c) If a sample contains 5 or more defectives, the entire batch is destroyed. Estimate \( P(\text{destruction}) \).
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Evaluation Rubric

LevelDescription%
4Thorough, insightful, high degree of effectiveness80–100%
3Considerable effectiveness (provincial standard)70–79%
2Some effectiveness, approaching standard60–69%
1Limited effectiveness50–59%
RInsufficient achievementBelow 50%