A 30-question test, 5 options each. A student guesses on every question. Expected number correct:
Solution:
\( E = np = 30 \cdot \dfrac{1}{5} = 6 \).
Part B: Thinking [15 marks]
Question 8 [4 marks]
A factory's quality control: 95% of items pass inspection. From a batch of 200 items, what is the probability that at least 195 pass? Show all work using the binomial distribution.
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Question 9 [4 marks]
A box contains 20 chocolates: 6 with caramel, 14 plain. A sample of 4 is drawn at random. Construct the probability distribution for \( X \) = number of caramel chocolates. Find \( E(X) \) and \( \mathrm{Var}(X) \).
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Question 10 [4 marks]
A baseball player has a batting average of .250. Find the probability his first hit comes on his 5th at-bat. What is the most probable at-bat for the first hit? Justify.
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Question 11 [3 marks]
For each scenario, identify the distribution (binomial, geometric, hypergeometric) and justify:
a) Drawing 3 cards from a 52-card deck and counting Aces.
b) Tossing a coin until the first head.
c) Asking 100 randomly chosen voters a yes/no question.
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Part C: Communication [15 marks]
Question 12 [4 marks]
Explain the difference between binomial and hypergeometric distributions. Use a concrete example (e.g., a deck of cards) to demonstrate when each applies. What is the role of "with vs. without replacement"?
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Question 13 [4 marks]
A student claims: "If a coin is tossed 10 times, the most likely number of heads is exactly 5." Is this correct? Justify with a calculation. What is \( P(X=5) \) for \( X \sim \mathrm{Binomial}(10, 0.5) \)?
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Question 14 [4 marks]
Describe a step-by-step procedure for deciding whether a problem is binomial, geometric, or hypergeometric. Apply your procedure to: "Drawing 5 cards from a deck and counting Hearts."
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Question 15 [3 marks]
Compare the means and variances: binomial \( np, np(1-p) \); geometric \( \dfrac{1}{p} \); hypergeometric \( n\dfrac{r}{N} \). What does the variance tell us about the spread of outcomes? Give an example.
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Part D: Application [15 marks]
Question 16 [4 marks]
A pharmaceutical drug is effective in 70% of patients. In a clinical trial of 25 patients, find the probability that exactly 20 are cured. Find the expected number cured and the standard deviation.
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Question 17 [4 marks]
A quality control inspector takes a sample of 5 items from a batch of 50. The batch contains 3 defective items. a) Find \( P(\text{at least 1 defective in sample}) \). b) The inspector rejects the batch if any defective item is found. \( P(\text{batch is rejected}) \) = ?
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Question 18 [3 marks]
A telemarketer calls until she makes her first sale. Each call has a 0.15 probability of success. a) Find the probability she succeeds on the 6th call. b) What is the expected number of calls until the first sale?
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Question 19 [4 marks]
A company manufactures microchips with a 2% defect rate. Quality assurance tests samples of 100 chips. a) Find the expected number of defective chips per sample. b) Find \( P(\text{at most 1 defective}) \) using the binomial distribution. c) If a sample contains 5 or more defectives, the entire batch is destroyed. Estimate \( P(\text{destruction}) \).
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Evaluation Rubric
Level
Description
%
4
Thorough, insightful, high degree of effectiveness